Colorado River Negotiation Notes: Tracking the Crisis

The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people across seven U.S. states and Mexico. It irrigates millions of acres of farmland and powers hydroelectric dams that supply electricity across the Southwest.

It's also running dry.

This running log tracks the ongoing negotiations over the river's future—shortage guidelines, tribal water allocations, and the cascading impacts on electrical grids and communities across the basin.

The Current Crisis

Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two massive reservoirs that store Colorado River water, have fallen to historic lows. What was once dismissed as a temporary drought is now recognized as aridification—a long-term shift toward a drier climate that may never reverse.

According to the Bureau of Reclamation's Supplemental Draft Environmental Impact Statement:

"Reclamation is evaluating near-term operating alternatives for Lake Powell and Lake Mead while honoring Tribal and state priorities."

Key Stakeholders

The Seven Basin States

The river is divided between the Upper Basin (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming) and Lower Basin (Arizona, California, Nevada). Each state has allocated water rights established in the 1922 Colorado River Compact—allocations based on flow estimates we now know were inflated.

Tribal Nations

Thirty federally recognized tribes hold water rights to approximately 20% of the river's flow—rights that were often established before state allocations but have been systematically underenforced. Key tribal stakeholders include:

• Navajo Nation — largest reservation in the U.S., still lacks running water for many residents
• Gila River Indian Community — holds senior water rights in Arizona
• Colorado River Indian Tribes — farming operations along the river's lower reaches

Mexico

The 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty guarantees Mexico 1.5 million acre-feet annually. As supply shrinks, international obligations add complexity to already fraught negotiations.

Shortage Guidelines

2007 Interim Guidelines

The first formal shortage-sharing agreements were established in 2007, setting triggers for cutbacks when Lake Mead falls below certain elevations:

AF = acre-feet

2019 Drought Contingency Plan

As conditions worsened, the states negotiated additional voluntary cuts through the Drought Contingency Plan. However, voluntary measures have proven insufficient as the river continues to decline.

Post-2026 Negotiations

The current operating guidelines expire in 2026. Negotiations for post-2026 operations are ongoing and contentious, with major unresolved questions:

1. How much water actually exists? — Climate models suggest the river can sustain far less than current allocations
2. Who takes the cuts? — Agricultural users hold the largest rights but cities face the most acute political pressure
3. What about tribal rights? — Many tribes have never received their full water allocations and are demanding priority

Grid Impacts

The Colorado River doesn't just provide water—it generates electricity. Hoover Dam and Glen Canyon Dam provide baseload power across the Southwest. As water levels drop:

• Hoover Dam has lost approximately 25% of generating capacity
• Glen Canyon Dam faces potential shutdown if Lake Powell drops much further
• Grid stability during summer peak demand is increasingly precarious

The interconnected nature of water and power means that river negotiations are also energy negotiations. California's grid, already strained by wildfire-related shutoffs and heat waves, depends on Colorado River hydropower.

What We're Watching

Near-Term (2024-2026)

• Finalization of post-2026 operating framework
• Tribal water settlements currently in negotiation
• Emergency conservation measures during drought years

Medium-Term (2026-2030)

• Implementation of new operating guidelines
• Infrastructure investments for water recycling and desalination
• Possible federal intervention if states fail to reach agreement

Long-Term Questions

• Can the basin support current population levels?
• What agricultural lands will be fallowed permanently?
• How will water markets and trading reshape western water law?

This article is part of Prism Writing's Knowledge Graph on Water & Infrastructure. Updates will be posted as negotiations progress.